An earlier version of this work appeared in January and February 2022 on Medium. Below is the link to the fully developed concept of Spiral Swan Theory with endnotes.

Here’s the Abstract from the paper. Please feel free to download and give proper citation to my work should you decide to use it.

ABSTRACT

In today’s global complexity the intelligence that classifies risk into different categories comes from a very thin layer of human values that leaves out much of the psychosocial structures that have defined the evolution of the mind. This paper focuses on the most popular classifications of risk as described by the popular Black Swan theory and offers a wider view on the values the incase today’s risk models and their limitations. It takes statistical modeling out of its sterile and often reductionist nature and places it into the totality of value systems that define our human journey. Using the Spiral Dynamics and MEMEnomics models, this paper demonstrates how systemic risk becomes less systemic and a lot more predictable when there is a functional balance between all the known stages of human development. Using the totality of value systems from both models this paper reclassifies the rare Black Swan into the knowable Orange Swan once the Black Swan is observed from a higher level of psychosocial development. It also sets forth the narrative on how the appearance of Orange Swans in perpetuity contributes to the Dead Swan phenomenon, a rare event that rewards systemic risk that has historically ended in catastrophe. This paper puts forth the hypothesis that we’ve been on the road to a Dead Swan for over a decade. Click here to view or download the full paper.

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