All posts by Said E. Dawlabani

President & CEO of The MEMEnomics Group

When it Comes to Russia’s Bombing of Syria, its not What you Think

By Said E. Dawlabani and Elza S. Maalouf

Since Russian President Putin began his military air campaign in Syria, Western media has offered a myriad of half-baked analysis for his motivation. Today’s news agencies are completely detached from the idea of consulting with history. If they were to do so, they will quickly come to the conclusion that all Putin is doing is using the same modus operandi that Russia, Europe and the US have used in the region for decades.

Russian MIG

 

BACKGROUND: THE NEED FOR INSTABILITY

The Arab Oil Embargo of the 1970s taught the West very valuable lessons on the volatility of oil markets: Threaten the supply and the price of crude oil will double if not triple in a short period of time. Since then, it has been in the West’s best interest to keep the region unstable in order to sell the fear that oil supply is under constant threat. This was the lever that many US administrations pulled including Bush/Cheney’s real reasons for invading Iraq. Successive Russian administration went along with this philosophy since it benefited them in both arms sales and as the world’s largest oil producer. As a result of these blood-soaked policies, hundreds of thousands of people in the Middle East have died, and the objective of keeping oil prices artificially high was met.

ENTER THE OBAMA ADMINISTRATION

In 2008 America voted for hope and change, and with it came the most passive foreign policy in modern US history. The idea that the US will no longer be the RED/Blue global police automatically activated the next Reds in line to fill the vacuum.Putin, intent on reclaiming past glory of mother Russia fired the first shot by invading Ukraine. President Obama countered with a stern speech and several bullet points outlining why in his words “This wasn’t 21st century behavior.”

The US and its allies immediately imposed sanctions on Russia hoping that Vlad will have a sudden attack of conscious and tap into the same delusional Green Kool-Aid the Obama Administration has been drinking from.

Punishing Putin meant crippling the Russian economy, and what a better way to do that than killing Putin’s cash cow; oil. The US and Western Europe flooded oil market with increased shale production in the US. In an unprecedented move, they demanded that Saudi Arabia not reduce its production quota, guaranteeing the complete decimation of Russia’s economy.

obama ME chess

The idea that Putin will be forced to withdraw from Ukraine with his tail between his legs is a clear indicator of the West’s inability to assess emerging Red leaders around the world. Putin, a past KGB operative was all too familiar with the principles of Middle Eastern instability.

Putin-blood-0805e

As the West lifted sanctions on Iran, Russia got the military supplies piece of the spoils. Shortly thereafter, Iran announced that it would partner with Russia to make what Middle Eastern analysts call the “Shi’a Crescent” a reality. For readers who are not familiar with the term, this is Iran’s dream of establishing a Pan-Arabian Shia region that spans from Iran, through Iraq, Syria and Lebanon. To Putin, this serves his ego on several fronts: One, he’s providing a new regional military counter balance to the West and two, he’s beating the West in its own game by destabilizing the region to bring up oil prices. The good old strategy has worked yet again. Just since the Russian air strikes began last week, crude oil has reversed a yearlong trend and is up 10% on global markets.

oil graph

One might also ask why is Russia bombing the Syrian opposition, not ISIL. Putin’s immediate goal is to punish Saudi Arabia for siding with the West on economic sanctions. This is not strategic, its RED eye-for-an-eye. The Saudis and other rich Sunni Gulf countries are the primary supporters of the Syrian rebels and that’s whom Putin is bombing.

When it comes to destabilizing the Middle East, Putin is not as diabolical as the West. He doesn’t hide behind the idea that he’s bringing democracy and the one-person one vote system. No, he’s very clear about who his new friends are. They’re the Arab Shi’a that include Assad’s Alawite sect, which is a branch of Shi’a Islam. Trained Shi’a fighters are seasoned killers, unlike any other Arab groups the West trains as fighters. They have a highly regimented (False) Blue organizational structure which gives them a purpose and that is to fight and die for Imam Ali so Shi’a Islam can prevail. Today, they are being trained by the thousands, thanks to the lifting of sanctions on Iran, which are bankrolling their trainers, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

iran grd

In the post American century, this is how you divide and conquer the Middle East. It’s done by giving power to a false purpose that ignites the sectarian need to kill. Not by naively promising democracy. As for the idea of a peaceful Middle East? That paradigm might crystallize a few hundred years after oil disappears.

This image taken in Wednesday, Sept. 30, 2015 posted on the Twitter account of Syria Civil Defence, also known as the White Helmets, a volunteer search and rescue group, shows the aftermath of an airstrike in Talbiseh, Syria. Russia on Wednesday carried out its first airstrikes in Syria in what President Vladimir Putin called a pre-emptive strike against the militants. Khaled Khoja, head of the Syrian National Council opposition group, said at the U.N. that Russian airstrikes in four areas, including Talbiseh, killed dozens of civilians, with children among the dead. (Syria Civil Defence via AP)
(Syria Civil Defence via AP)

You can file this one under the  “Only Money Matters” file. In a world run by the values of the Orange level system where only money matters, the lives of a few million Arabs are reduced to a simple cost-benefit analysis. That analysis is very likely made by a Harvard MBA, who did an internship with Kissinger and Associates, who every night goes home to his wife and kids and sleeps soundly.

Something is wrong with this picture.

 

 

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China’s New World Order: Development Capital or New Imperialism?

The news agency Reuters reported yesterday on China’s creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which is supposed to rival the World Bank and the IMF.   With China’s rising economic power, does the AIIB represent a viable alternative to underdeveloped countries in desperate need of capital or would it be a failure like its Western counterparts? It is being touted as China’s attempt at making obsolete the IMF and World Bank, but what would be the extent of its reach?

The AIIB is a brand new global development bank that promises to impose  less stringent metrics on its borrowing countries. Unlike the IMF and the Wold bank who insist on political reforms and privatization efforts from borrowers, China’s new world development bank is only asking for transparency.dollaryuan

The burning question that any reasonable banker would ask is what would the bank do in case of default? The IMF and the World Bank were an extension of colonial Orange dominance through finance. They collectively sentenced less developed countries to a life of perpetual debt and poverty. In my estimation, the AIIB won’t fare much better. Based on the  value systems that currently motivate China,  the bank will be an extension of RED Chinese dominance, i.e, in the case of default China will occupy the debtor country, loot its resources until the debt is paid off. China employs these tactics today in the form of exchange; resources for development. Unfortunately,  the values of Confucianism are not the motivating factors in China’s new expansionist policies. This is Red lenders and Red borrowers who understand each others’ language, and understand the brutal consequences of default.

In the past, similar, well-meaning,  world-changing efforts like this were announced to great fanfare, but  never materialize in the long term.  One might  ask the question of what happened to the BRICs bank that was supposed to save less fortunate countries when it was announced less than 2 years ago? 3 of its 4 founding countries are having significant economic challenges at home. Russia and Brazil’s economies are experiencing tremendous setbacks while India is dealing with its own issues of slow growth leaving China as the only brick left in the original BRICs bank.

It remains to be seem whether China’s slowdown will make the AIIB a reality. If it continues its reforms towards a free market economy, it will spell disaster for their short term goals (as I pointed out in this interview with Newsweek Magazine). Part of China’s movement towards a free market economy will involve Orange metrics and transparency that will  uncover Trillions in toxic and non-performing assets that have to be written off.  After China’s balance sheets reflect those new realities, I highly doubt they will still have the appetite for highly speculative lending to foreign countries without the traditional collateral. We’ll have to wait and see. The waiting, this time won’t be long.

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A MEMEnomics Critique of Paul Mason’s Postcapitalism, PART I: A Guide to the Future or the Angst of a Marxist in Denial

About two months ago I read a piece in The Guardian newspaper by Paul Mason about the promise of the Information Age. It was as if a layman who knew nothing about the Gravesian framework has articulated the Eighth Level of human existence in some reliable detail. This was a piece that successfully left out the spiritual narrative and based its conclusions on real and possible trajectories. Mason was promoting his book, Postcapitalism, A Guide to Our Future, I ordered the book from the UK publisher months before its release in the US.  This post is part I of a two-part review.

From the get go, Mason casts a wide net on economic philosophies and the nature of the capitalist ideology by proclaiming that capitalism is a complex adaptive system that has reached the limits of its ability to adapt, and therein lies the need for a new system.  The argument is that new technologies are being created at such neck-breaking speed there is no time for traditional market mechanisms such as manipulation of price, supply and demand to be effective.  The book starts with the premise that the information economy cannot be compatible with the market economy or at least not one dominated and regulated by existing market forces.

This was a narrative that got my attention as I was searching for ways to resolve a paradox I ran into a few years ago. As we entered the Fourth MEMEnomic Cycle (The Green 6thlevel system in economics), which I call the  “democratization of information and resources cycle,”and Mason calls Info-capitalism, many liberal thinkers proclaimed it to be the beginning of the end of capitalism. What I couldn’t resolve is how could these same thinkers not see that industrial age capitalism was giving way to a far deadlier information age capitalism made up of very few super-monopolistic global corporations that have no workers, cater only to the investor class, and rely whole heartedly on exploiting of the existing tenets of capitalism. These were the Apples, the Googles, the Facebooks and the Amazons of the new economy, which I thought Mason would address convincingly on his way to lay down the foundation for a Post capitalist society. Or so I thought.

Immediately after outlining the challenges to the current system, instead debating the contemporary issues that need to be resolved, Mason embarks on a strange ideological journey for most of the remainder of the book attempting to revive the virtues of Marxism. For every writer, this is a safe way to insure your work gets published, but Mason goes on a beaten path back in history, trying his hand in being a revisionist. He begins by framing his views through Kondratieff’s Long Wave Theory, which says that economic cycles last about 50 years with distinct stages of prosperity, recession, depression, and improvement. Mason argues that the life of the current cycle was artificially extended by the neoliberal ideology that seeks to fix everything through “financialization.” (In my work, this is a whole cycle that expresses the peak and decline of the Orange system I call the Only Money Matters Era).

In different parts of the book, Mason makes several excuses for why the adoption of Marxism failed, and why this time is the right time for it to succeed. With his sites always set on the plight of the laborer, he   first argues how Marx’s Crisis Theory was as an incomplete understanding of the capitalist system since history proved that capitalism under stress, instead of collapsing, evolved with the help of technology into entirely new structures with different business models resulting in the evolution of skill, markets and even currencies.

Mason argues that throughout all these cycles and changes in technology and business models, the system always fended off efforts to reduce wages until the onset of neoliberalism. His disdain for neoliberal thought jumps off the page in such an effusive way it makes one wonder about his objectivity as a journalist. He claims that everything that has defined the fall of the West from the glory of industrial leadership, like outsourcing, offshoring, automation, and privatization are all byproducts of the neoliberal ideology and its sole goal to defeat labor.

Then, instead of arguing how to improve the plight of the laborer moving into the future (as if the global economy is heading in the direction of labor-intensive work needing Mason to save it), he finds a second love affair with Marx in his improvements on Ricardo’s Labor theory. Instead of boring you with the details of an ideology that’s older than the US civil war, I’ll distill Mason’s wonderings in that direction in a few simple sentences. The theory breaks down the makeup of labor/productivity into two components: a: Live labor, which is the workers’ input into a product, and b: Fixed labor, which is the machine’s share of the equation. Mason supports Marx’s idea that those who profit off what machines produce are the very definition of non-productivity or “theft” in an economy. His conclusion is that an economy, instead of being based on money/wages, should be based on hours worked. Those who can work more hours, would realize what Marx called “surplus value”. Mason’s analysis, as if he’s a union organizer rallying workers on the floor of Foxconn in China, is that live labor is the mother lode from which profit is harvested and the only people worthy of proper compensation are the hourly workers and the rest are all thieves. History is full of examples that show worker-run factories fail miserably unless output is planned by a closed-system command and control structure. Even then it was these systems that created a far bigger level of mass scarcity, and even starvation that the capitalist system ever did.

Mason then draws closer to the issues at hand, again by citing Marx and his work on a lesser known theory called Fragments on Machines, which argues that in the ever increasing fight between technology and labor the focus shifts away from the laborer to the amount of labor that goes into building the machine. This shifts the focus from labor vs. profit to who controls the power of knowledge that goes into building the machine. Mason insists that the nature of knowledge locked into the machine is socially produced and therefore must be social.

In part II, I’ll evaluate the last 2 chapters of the book where Mason offers some valid critiques on the rise of the network and how that is the new machine/factory where the whole of humanity contributes to its design and production process. He combines that with a vivid presentation of facts and challenges facing the world such as climate change and an aging population.

 

 

 

 

 

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