Tag Archives: Free Market economy

Why Trump Will Win Reelection and What to do to Stop it


By Said E. Dawlabani                                                                                                     Published in Medium January 25, 2020                                                                                                                                                                                                                             Photo credit: Foreign Policy 

I had several chances to nap in the middle of the day this week. Not because I needed the rest, but because I was bored to death listening to the Democrats make their case in the impeachment trial of Donald Trump. The Democratic Party remains under the delusion that the law matters to the GOP in its current state. They and one half of the US population have made the case of “he broke the law” a million times since Trump was elected in 2016. Three years have passed and still, the Dems and their supporters refuse to accept the new reality that we live in a Post-Truth world where very little matters and truth is no longer the domain of the virtuous. This is a new era where the law, just like many of the abstract concepts entrusted to a democracy, has become just another alternative narrative to those who support Trump. Based on what has happened since Trump’s election, the GOP under his rein is on the fast track to have the entire US government and its Constitution subverted and its responsibilities handed over to the Russians, to thugs, and to bankers and the private sector.


The disappearance of the pillars that upheld the ethos of human decency weren’t just limited to truth. Today, the Digital Age has given the world a million alternative narratives for every virtue we had taken for granted. What chances does a 233-year old paper called the US Constitution have in the face of this deluge of insolence that has tribalized and polarized the world? Neither Plato nor the founding fathers ever anticipated these existential challenges to a fragile construct called democracy. To see this drastic change in the collective values of the US, one only needs to go back 47 years. Just think of Nixon’s impeachment when he famously defended himself with the phrase “I’m not a crook” and when evidence began to pile up against that argument, he resigned. Compare that to Trump’s actions that challenge the very foundation of a constitutional republic. It is as if he’s saying “I’m the biggest crook. What are you going to do about it?” So far, no one has been able to do anything about it. Today, Trump remains the most powerful corrupt man in the world.

Trump is not presidential; he is a transactional narcissist with evil intentions. In 2016 his base of support included people whose values are dominated by a free market narrative. To them nothing else mattered other than the virtues of making money, and Trump delivered on his promise to them. He passed a tax reform law that punished liberal states by taking away many of the tax deductions they enjoyed and rewarded real estate developers like himself with new tax saving incentives. This is transactional narcissism at it’s best with the added bonus of punishing his enemies, half of the American people. He lowered corporate tax rates and, just like a thug ignoring established rules, he intimidated the Fed into lowering interest rates. Today with low unemployment and a stock market that has gone up more than 10,000 points, Trump by virtue of his adolescent economic policies has ensnared a far greater segment of the US population into his net of insolence.

Today, as the Democrats continue to pursue the noble virtues of enforcing the law of the land, they continue to miss the big picture, the one that is blinking in bright neon lights 24 hours a day, 7 days a week and it’s blinking the words “Only Money Matters.” They still think that they can offset the appeal of money and a good economy by exalting the virtues of decency and responsible citizenship. To an increasing number of people the idea that Trump broke laws no longer wins against the argument that “my stock portfolio has doubled in value since he became president.” Money has subversed virtue. The so-called swing voter who was on the fence on the morality issue with Trump is no longer there. He has fallen into the Trump camp fully intoxicated with the spoils of the free market. He had overcome the moral conundrum of right and wrong. Today, more and more American believe that their net worth is far more important than their moral worth. It is a place of depraved decay for which we will all pay a high price. It is also a place where the Trump administration is hard at work luring more Americans into its dark and evil web that will surely affect the outcome of the 2020 election. Today the Trump Administration is preparing to roll out another tax cut. This one will target the middle class and will probably be passed into law as early as when the Senate exonerates him, but no later than a few weeks after the Democrats pick their presidential nominee.

While the Democrats proclaim to be progressive politicians, they haven’t progressed beyond traditional remedies for problems that are existential in nature. Yes, Trump is an existential threat to democracy and that means the Democrats must look beyond the impeachment, call it a distraction, and find different tactics to save the republic. What will matter in this election is money, and if the democrats are going to have a chance at the presidency in 2020, they must hit Trump and the GOP where it counts. This is not an issue of which candidate raises the most funds for the presidential campaign. Trump will win that competition hands down. The Democrats will not win on moral appeal alone. What they need to do is to start thinking in structural terms in order to pull this existential threat to democracy from its roots. They must think of the economy. No Republican or swing voter is going to vote for a democrat who will surely roll back  tax cuts and introduce new taxes and regulations that will bring an end to a record bull market. The majority of voters who have a reasonable net worth or those who are approaching retirement and have concerns about their 401K are not going to vote for either Sanders or Warren. These are the two candidates who know what structural reforms the capitalist system needs, and Trump knows exactly how to spread fear about them being in power.

The stock market gave legitimacy to Trump and it must be the stock market that takes that legitimacy away. I will argue that if democracy is going to be saved, then the Democrats must do everything in their power to cause the stock market to collapse. It is long overdue for a correction, and the Democrats must see to it that the correction happens before the 2020 elections. They, of course don’t have the power to do that themselves, but they can call on their liberal Billionaire investor friends to begin to systemically short all markets beginning in the summer of 2020. Yes, it might be immoral or even illegal, but illegal and immoral, thanks to Donald J. Trump have been legitimized, optimized, monetized and glorified. These are desperate times, and desperate times call for desperate measures. Remember the bright neon sign shining on the hill. If we want other things to matter, then money is the narcotic that preventing those other things, including the US Constitution from mattering.

This will be the ultimate test of Progressive values under this historic existential threat. It will test the likes of George Soros and Jeff Bezos and the thousand other CEOs and hedge fund managers who claim to be Progressives. I doubt that this level of courage even exists anymore, but it is what has become necessary. What the Democrats and their supporters must understand is that this is no longer a fight between the left and the right side of the political spectrum. It is a fight for the very soul of democracy without which no stock markets and no amount of money matter.






China’s New World Order: Development Capital or New Imperialism?

The news agency Reuters reported yesterday on China’s creation of the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), which is supposed to rival the World Bank and the IMF.   With China’s rising economic power, does the AIIB represent a viable alternative to underdeveloped countries in desperate need of capital or would it be a failure like its Western counterparts? It is being touted as China’s attempt at making obsolete the IMF and World Bank, but what would be the extent of its reach?

The AIIB is a brand new global development bank that promises to impose  less stringent metrics on its borrowing countries. Unlike the IMF and the Wold bank who insist on political reforms and privatization efforts from borrowers, China’s new world development bank is only asking for transparency.dollaryuan

The burning question that any reasonable banker would ask is what would the bank do in case of default? The IMF and the World Bank were an extension of colonial Orange dominance through finance. They collectively sentenced less developed countries to a life of perpetual debt and poverty. In my estimation, the AIIB won’t fare much better. Based on the  value systems that currently motivate China,  the bank will be an extension of RED Chinese dominance, i.e, in the case of default China will occupy the debtor country, loot its resources until the debt is paid off. China employs these tactics today in the form of exchange; resources for development. Unfortunately,  the values of Confucianism are not the motivating factors in China’s new expansionist policies. This is Red lenders and Red borrowers who understand each others’ language, and understand the brutal consequences of default.

In the past, similar, well-meaning,  world-changing efforts like this were announced to great fanfare, but  never materialize in the long term.  One might  ask the question of what happened to the BRICs bank that was supposed to save less fortunate countries when it was announced less than 2 years ago? 3 of its 4 founding countries are having significant economic challenges at home. Russia and Brazil’s economies are experiencing tremendous setbacks while India is dealing with its own issues of slow growth leaving China as the only brick left in the original BRICs bank.

It remains to be seem whether China’s slowdown will make the AIIB a reality. If it continues its reforms towards a free market economy, it will spell disaster for their short term goals (as I pointed out in this interview with Newsweek Magazine). Part of China’s movement towards a free market economy will involve Orange metrics and transparency that will  uncover Trillions in toxic and non-performing assets that have to be written off.  After China’s balance sheets reflect those new realities, I highly doubt they will still have the appetite for highly speculative lending to foreign countries without the traditional collateral. We’ll have to wait and see. The waiting, this time won’t be long.